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ABSTRACT We investigate the effect of the cutting-edge circumbinary disc (CBD) evolution models on massive black hole binary (MBHB) populations and the gravitational wave background (GWB). We show that CBD-driven evolution leaves a tell-tale signature in MBHB populations, by driving binaries towards an equilibrium eccentricity that depends on the binary mass ratio. We find high orbital eccentricities ($$e_{\rm b} \sim 0.5$$) as MBHBs enter multimessenger observable frequency bands. The CBD-induced eccentricity distribution of MBHB populations in observable bands is independent of the initial eccentricity distribution at binary formation, erasing any memory of eccentricities induced in the large-scale dynamics of merging galaxies. Our results suggest that eccentric MBHBs are the rule rather than the exception in upcoming transient surveys, provided that CBDs regularly form in MBHB systems. We show that the GWB amplitude is sensitive to CBD-driven preferential accretion onto the secondary, resulting in an increase in GWB amplitude $$A_{\rm yr^{-1}}$$ by over 100 per cent with just 10 per cent Eddington accretion. As we self-consistently allow for binary hardening and softening, we show that CBD-driven orbital expansion does not diminish the GWB amplitude, and instead increases the amplitude by a small amount. We further present detection rates and population statistics of MBHBs with $$M_{\rm b} \gtrsim 10^6 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$$ in Laser Interferometer Space Antenna, showing that most binaries have equal mass ratios and can retain residual eccentricities up to $$e_{\rm b} \sim 10^{-3}$$ due to CBD-driven evolution. 

Abstract While supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries are not the only viable source for the low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB) signal evidenced by the most recent pulsar timing array (PTA) data sets, they are expected to be the most likely. Thus, connecting the measured PTA GWB spectrum and the underlying physics governing the demographics and dynamics of SMBH binaries is extremely important. Previously, Gaussian processes (GPs) and dense neural networks have been used to make such a connection by being built as conditional emulators; their input is some selected evolution or environmental SMBH binary parameters and their output is the emulated mean and standard deviation of the GWB strain ensemble distribution over many Universes. In this paper, we use a normalizing flow (NF) emulator that is trained on the entirety of the GWB strain ensemble distribution, rather than only mean and standard deviation. As a result, we can predict strain distributions that mirror underlying simulations very closely while also capturing frequency covariances in the strain distributions as well as statistical complexities such as tails, non-Gaussianities, and multimodalities that are otherwise not learnable by existing techniques. In particular, we feature various comparisons between the NF-based emulator and the GP approach used extensively in past efforts. Our analyses conclude that the NF-based emulator not only outperforms GPs in the ease and computational cost of training but also outperforms in the fidelity of the emulated GWB strain ensemble distributions. 

Abstract Pulsar timing arrays have found evidence for a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). Assuming that the GWB is produced by supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), the next gravitational-wave (GW) signals astronomers anticipate are continuous waves (CWs) from single SMBHBs and their associated GWB anisotropy. The prospects for detecting CWs and anisotropy are highly dependent on the astrophysics of SMBHB populations. Thus, information from single sources can break degeneracies in astrophysical models and place much more stringent constraints than the GWB alone. We simulate and evolve SMBHB populations, model their GWs, and calculate their anisotropy and detectability. We investigate how varying components of our semianalytic model, including the galaxy stellar mass function, the SMBH–host galaxy relation (M_BH–M_bulge), and the binary evolution prescription, impact the expected detections. The CW occurrence rate is greatest for few total binaries, high SMBHB masses, large scatter inM_BH–M_bulge, and long hardening times. The occurrence rate depends most on the binary evolution parameters, implying that CWs offer a novel avenue to probe binary evolution. The most detectable CW sources are in the lowest frequency bin for a 16.03 yr PTA, have masses from ∼10⁹to 10¹⁰M_⊙, and are ∼1 Gpc away. The level of anisotropy increases with frequency, with the angular power spectrum over multipole modesℓvarying in low-frequencyC_ℓ>0/C₀from ∼5 × 10⁻³to ∼2 × 10⁻¹, depending on the model; typical values are near current upper limits. Observing this anisotropy would support SMBHB models for the GWB over cosmological models, which tend to be isotropic. 

Abstract Tidal disruption events (TDEs) that are spatially offset from the nuclei of their host galaxies offer a new probe of massive black hole (MBH) wanderers, binaries, triples, and recoiling MBHs. Here we present AT2024tvd, the first off-nuclear TDE identified through optical sky surveys. High-resolution imaging with the Hubble Space Telescope shows that AT2024tvd is 0 $\stackrel{\text{″}}{.}$914 ± 0 $\stackrel{\text{″}}{.}$010 offset from the apparent center of its host galaxy, corresponding to a projected distance of 0.808 ± 0.009 kpc atz= 0.045. Chandra and Very Large Array observations support the same conclusion for the TDE’s X-ray and radio emission. AT2024tvd exhibits typical properties of nuclear TDEs, including a persistent hot UV/optical component that peaks atL_bb ∼ 6 × 10⁴³erg s⁻¹, broad hydrogen lines in its optical spectra, and delayed brightening of luminous (L_X,peak ∼ 3 × 10⁴³erg s⁻¹), highly variable soft X-ray emission. The MBH mass of AT2024tvd is 10^6±1M_⊙, at least 10 times lower than its host galaxy’s central black hole mass (≳10⁸M_⊙). The MBH in AT2024tvd has two possible origins: a wandering MBH from the lower-mass galaxy in a minor merger during the dynamical friction phase or a recoiling MBH ejected by triple interactions. Combining AT2024tvd with two previously known off-nuclear TDEs discovered in X-rays (3XMM J2150 and EP240222a), which likely involve intermediate-mass black holes in satellite galaxies, we find that the parent galaxies of all three events are very massive (∼10^10.9M_⊙). This result aligns with expectations from cosmological simulations that the number of offset MBHs scales linearly with the host halo mass. 

ABSTRACT Massive black hole (MBH) binaries can form following a galaxy merger, but this may not always lead to a MBH binary merger within a Hubble time. The merger time-scale depends on how efficiently the MBHs lose orbital energy to the gas and stellar background, and to gravitational waves (GWs). In systems where these mechanisms are inefficient, the binary inspiral time can be long enough for a subsequent galaxy merger to bring a third MBH into the system. In this work, we identify and characterize the population of triple MBH systems in the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. We find a substantial occurrence rate of triple MBH systems: in our fiducial model, 22 per cent of all binary systems form triples, and $$\gt 70{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$$ of these involve binaries that would not otherwise merge by z = 0. Furthermore, a significant subset of triples (6 per cent of all binaries, or more than a quarter of all triples) form a triple system at parsec scales, where the three BHs are most likely to undergo a strong three-body interaction. Crucially, we find that the rate of triple occurrence has only a weak dependence on key parameters of the binary inspiral model (binary eccentricity and stellar loss-cone refilling rate). We also do not observe strong trends in the host galaxy properties for binary versus triple MBH populations. Our results demonstrate the potential for triple systems to increase MBH merger rates, thereby enhancing the low-frequency GW signals detectable with pulsar timing arrays and with LISA. 

ABSTRACT The physical origin of the seeds of supermassive black holes (SMBHs), with postulated initial masses ranging from ∼105 M⊙ to as low as ∼102 M⊙, is currently unknown. Most existing cosmological hydrodynamic simulations adopt very simple, ad hoc prescriptions for BH seeding and seed at unphysically high masses ∼105–106 M⊙. In this work, we introduce a novel sub-grid BH seeding model for cosmological simulations that is directly calibrated to high-resolution zoom simulations that explicitly resolve ∼103 M⊙ seeds forming within haloes with pristine, dense gas. We trace the BH growth along galaxy merger trees until their descendants reach masses of ∼104 or 105 M⊙. The results are used to build a new stochastic seeding model that directly seeds these descendants in lower resolution versions of our zoom region. Remarkably, we find that by seeding the descendants simply based on total galaxy mass, redshift and an environmental richness parameter, we can reproduce the results of the detailed gas-based seeding model. The baryonic properties of the host galaxies are well reproduced by the mass-based seeding criterion. The redshift-dependence of the mass-based criterion captures the combined influence of halo growth, dense gas formation, and metal enrichment on the formation of ∼103 M⊙ seeds. The environment-based seeding criterion seeds the descendants in rich environments with higher numbers of neighbouring galaxies. This accounts for the impact of unresolved merger dominated growth of BHs, which produces faster growth of descendants in richer environments with more extensive BH merger history. Our new seed model will be useful for representing a variety of low-mass seeding channels within next-generation larger volume uniform cosmological simulations. 

Abstract Hundreds of millions of supermassive black hole binaries are expected to contribute to the gravitational-wave signal in the nanohertz frequency band. Their signal is often approximated either as an isotropic Gaussian stochastic background with a power-law spectrum or as an individual source corresponding to the brightest binary. In reality, the signal is best described as a combination of a stochastic background and a few of the brightest binaries modeled individually. We present a method that uses this approach to efficiently create realistic pulsar timing array data sets using synthetic catalogs of binaries based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. We explore three different properties of such realistic backgrounds that could help distinguish them from those formed in the early universe: (i) their characteristic strain spectrum, (ii) their statistical isotropy, and (iii) the variance of their spatial correlations. We also investigate how the presence of confusion noise from a stochastic background affects detection prospects of individual binaries. We calculate signal-to-noise ratios of the brightest binaries in different realizations for a simulated pulsar timing array based on the NANOGrav 12.5 yr data set extended to a time span of 15 yr. We find that ∼6% of the realizations produce systems with signal-to-noise ratios larger than 5, suggesting that individual systems might soon be detected (the fraction increases to ∼41% at 20 yr). These can be taken as a pessimistic prediction for the upcoming NANOGrav 15 yr data set, since it does not include the effect of potentially improved timing solutions and newly added pulsars. 

ABSTRACT A long-standing problem in galactic simulations is to resolve the dynamical friction (DF) force acting on massive black hole particles when their masses are comparable to or less than the background simulation particles. Many sub-grid models based on the traditional Chandrasekhar DF formula have been proposed, yet they suffer from fundamental ambiguities in the definition of some terms in Chandrasekhar’s formula when applied to real galaxies, as well as difficulty in evaluating continuous quantities from (spatially) discrete simulation data. In this work, we present a new sub-grid DF estimator based on the discrete nature of N-body simulations, which also avoids the ambiguously defined quantities in Chandrasekhar’s formula. We test our estimator in the gizmo code and find that it agrees well with high-resolution simulations where DF is fully captured, with negligible additional computational cost. We also compare it with a Chandrasekhar estimator and discuss its applications in real galactic simulations. 

Abstract The delay time distribution of neutron star mergers provides critical insights into binary evolution processes and the merger rate evolution of compact object binaries. However, current observational constraints on this delay time distribution rely on the small sample of Galactic double neutron stars (with uncertain selection effects), a single multimessenger gravitational wave event, and indirect evidence of neutron star mergers based on r -process enrichment. We use a sample of 68 host galaxies of short gamma-ray bursts to place novel constraints on the delay time distribution and leverage this result to infer the merger rate evolution of compact object binaries containing neutron stars. We recover a power-law slope of α = − 1.83 − 0.39 + 0.35 (median and 90% credible interval) with α < −1.31 at 99% credibility, a minimum delay time of t min = 184 − 79 + 67 Myr with t min > 72 Myr at 99% credibility, and a maximum delay time constrained to t max > 7.95 Gyr at 99% credibility. We find these constraints to be broadly consistent with theoretical expectations, although our recovered power-law slope is substantially steeper than the conventional value of α = −1, and our minimum delay time is larger than the typically assumed value of 10 Myr. Pairing this cosmological probe of the fate of compact object binary systems with the Galactic population of double neutron stars will be crucial for understanding the unique selection effects governing both of these populations. In addition to probing a significantly larger redshift regime of neutron star mergers than possible with current gravitational wave detectors, complementing our results with future multimessenger gravitational wave events will also help determine if short gamma-ray bursts ubiquitously result from compact object binary mergers. 

ABSTRACT Observations of massive galaxies at low redshift have revealed approximately linear scaling relations between the mass of a supermassive black hole (SMBH) and properties of its host galaxy. How these scaling relations evolve with redshift and whether they extend to lower-mass galaxies, however, remain open questions. Recent galaxy formation simulations predict a delayed, or ‘two-phase,’ growth of SMBHs: slow, highly intermittent BH growth due to repeated gas ejection by stellar feedback in low-mass galaxies, followed by more sustained gas accretion that eventually brings BHs on to the local scaling relations. The predicted two-phase growth implies a steep increase, or ‘kink,’ in BH-galaxy scaling relations at a stellar mass $$\rm {M}_{*}\sim 5\times 10^{10}$$ M⊙. We develop a parametric, semi-analytic model to compare different SMBH growth models against observations of the quasar luminosity function (QLF) at z ∼ 0.5−4. We compare models in which the relation between SMBH mass and galaxy mass is purely linear versus two-phase models. The models are anchored to the observed galaxy stellar mass function, and the BH mass functions at different redshifts are consistently connected by the accretion rates contributing to the QLF. The best fits suggest that two-phase evolution is significantly preferred by the QLF data over a purely linear scaling relation. Moreover, when the model parameters are left free, the two-phase model fits imply a transition mass consistent with that predicted by simulations. Our analysis motivates further observational tests, including measurements of BH masses and active galactic nuclei activity at the low-mass end, which could more directly test two-phase SMBH growth.